…and, frankly, I stay worried.

Despite the revelation by U.S. Intelligence agencies that Iran stopped exploring the possibility for nuclear weapons some years ago, the Bush administration has continued to engage in an amazing display of factual denial. The revelation resulted in a temporary toning down of the rhetoric of war because of the embarrassment. Certainly Bush and Cheney did not expect to be caught with their pants down, which is precisely what happened.

Nevertheless, after some months, the Administration has once again renewed its pro-war talk and each of us should be very concerned about this. Does this mean a US invasion of Iran? Probably not. It is unclear how the US military could sustain an invasion, both because of being tied down in Iraq plus the vast size and complexity of Iran. That said, there is little to stop the Bush administration from carrying out a bombing of Iran with the intent of either crippling their nuclear capability and/or believing that this will result in some sort of popular Iranian revolt.

It is important for us to understand that the Bush administration has never let the facts get in the way of its policies. Iraq was the most important example of this. At the same time they do pay attention to the so-called facts on the ground. An attack on North Korea by the USA, in contrast, was discouraged both by the massive size of the North Korean army along with their apparent possession of at least one nuclear weapon.

If attacked, Iran could make things very difficult for the USA. Much of this has been discussed over the months, including the possible Iranian closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact that would have for the flow of oil (think about what we are already paying for fuel!). What US military circles are particularly worried about, however, is the impact on Iraq where, with probably very little effort, the Iranians could encourage a massive Shiite uprising. One need only watch what is transpiring today between Shia militias and the Iraqi puppet government to get a small sense of how ugly the situation could become.

What can also stop maniacal efforts, though, would be a significant force within the USA. I know; you have heard this before. We turned out millions but we did not stop the Iraq war. All of that is true. However, we are NOW in a war/occupation, and badly damaged as a result. The US military appears to be divided about its own capabilities and this is precisely the moment when anti-war coherence is so badly needed.

Too many people seem to have concluded that the only thing one can do to stop the further spread of the irrational foreign policy is to vote for a Democrat in November. While I am prepared to vote for a Democrat in November, and while I am a “critical supporter” of Senator Obama, I do not advocate sitting around to wait. Among other things, the Bush administration may believe that it has little to lose by carrying out an attack now. Remember that Bush’s father got the USA embroiled in Somalia at the tail-end of his administration.

More importantly, perhaps, is the fact that we just do not know what a hoped-for Democratic administration will do. They might carry out an attack themselves just to prove they are not soft on terrorism, Iran, etc. Therefore, what we do over the next number of months, in addition to our electoral activity, makes all the difference in the world.

We need to have discussions about what we do to prevent an attack. First, we need to support forces INSIDE Iran that are fighting for democracy and social justice. No, I am not talking about puppets of the USA, but genuine forces that have long been fighting for liberation. These forces are under intense pressure, challenged by the Ahmedinejad government as being unpatriotic, but they must know that there are forces outside of Iran that, while opposing ANY US or Israeli attack on Iran, also support their struggle for justice. We cannot let the fact of Bush administration hostility toward the Iranian government lead us to believe that those in Iran who oppose the government are necessarily in the pocket of the USA. The situation is far more complicated.

We also have to start leaning a lot more on our elected representatives here at home, insisting that they take a clear and public stand against any US aggression towards Iran. A few months ago I sent an email to one of my Senators about Iran and was deeply disturbed by his reaction, where he focused on the alleged Iranian threat rather than recognizing that the Bush administration is flying the same disingenuous flags that it flew before invading Iraq. We need a “Peace in the Gulf Day” where we visit elected representatives en masse and hold demonstrations and other forms of peaceful protest in order to make our point.

Let me close with this one note, a point I will elaborate upon in future commentaries: we - Black folks - should not be waiting for white anti-war activists to take the lead on this. In fact, I would suggest that this effort needs to come out of Black America. If we take the lead, others will follow, and it will certainly further upset the conventional wisdom.

If there is to be no more business as usual, then it is up to us to make it real.

Bill Fletcher, Jr. is Executive Editor of The Black Commentator. He is also a Senior Scholar with the Institute for Policy Studies and the immediate past president of TransAfrica Forum. Click here to contact Mr. Fletcher.

Your comments are always welcome.