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BlackCommentator.com: Cover Story 2 Wisconsin: Democracy Inaction - Leftward-Ho By Peter Gamble, BlackCommentator.com Publisher

   
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As I watched the numbers of protestors in Wisconsin grow to seventy thousand, I wondered how many of these people did not vote in November of 2010. I did not recall how close the Wisconsin off-year election was nor did I remember how wide the Obama victory was in Wisconsin in November of 2008.

In looking for election results and turnout, I found the source for this data is The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB) which produces statistics on voter turnout and the number of registered voters. The GAB is the source for all the numbers in this commentary.

We can’t know for certain how many of the individuals who are upset with the actions of Governor Scott Walker did not vote. I suspect if the protestors could be questioned about this, those who did not vote might not want to admit it. It is probably similar to comparing the number of people who now claim they were in D.C. for MLK’s “I Have a Dream” speech with the real turnout. If those who now claim to have been there were really there, the mall would not have been able to come close to holding them all.

Voters in Wisconsin have a system that is very easy to use. Voters are not required to declare a party and anyone who can provide evidence of residence can register and vote on election day.

Voting is important. I have never missed an election and have voted absentee while serving in the U.S. Army outside the USA and when I knew I would be away from home. In one local election, absentee votes were counted to determine the winner. I had voted absentee and my candidate won by only one vote. So please don’t tell me your vote does not count!

There are folks on the left who think it is a waste of time to vote because the system is corrupt. I would like to see individuals work in their neighborhoods to get people registered to vote, and educate their fellow citizens about the important issues of social justice, economic justice and peace. Our election system needs serious changing and voting is a key element to bringing about change.

We know voter turnout is lower for off-year elections, so how bad was it in Wisconsin in November of 2010?

According to the data from the Wisconsin GAB, the turnout was 49.7 percent of the voting age population in November of 2010. That’s not an impressive number, but additional meaning is provided by taking a look at the turnout for the 2008 Presidential election. In November of 2008, 69.2 percent of the voting age population voted.

In November of 2010 a total of 2,171,331 votes were cast by a voting age population of 4,372,347, so less than half, 2,201,016 people of voting age, did not vote. Republican Scott Walker defeated Democrat Tom Barrett (Mayor of Milwaukee) by a margin of 52.25% to 46.48% or by 5.77% of the vote. However, the percentages don’t tell as clear a picture as looking at the vote totals. Walker beat Barrett 1,128,941 to 1,004,303 or 124,638 votes. That may seem like a big margin unless you do some division and realize that the winning total is only 2.85% of the voting age population and only 5.66 percent of the voting age population that did not vote. These numbers make it clear that the results could have been very different.

It is also interesting to look at how the turnout in the 2010 off-year election compares with the Presidential election of 2008.

Since November of 2008, the voting age population (VAP) of Wisconsin increased by 41,652. In November of 2008 the VAP was 4,330,695 and the turnout was 69.2 percent because 2,996,869 people voted. Obama beat McCain 56.22% to 42.31%. This is a margin of 13.91 and a vote count of 1,677,211 to 1,262,393 for a difference of 414,818 votes.

Ok, so what happened in November of 2010? Obama’s margin of victory over McCain was 3.32 times larger than Walker’s win over Barrett.

548,270 more votes were cast for Obama in 2008 than were cast for Walker in 2010. In short, Barrett could have defeated Walker if those who voted for Obama had been fired up enough to get out and vote.

Walker could have been defeated if only 68 percent of the Obama voters turned out and voted for Barrett. I arrive at this number by dividing the total Walker vote count by the total Obama vote count and rounding up from 67.3 percent to the 68 percent. It appears the right was fired up and the left wasn’t.

Some may conclude that Obama supporters did not vote because they were discouraged by his (Obama’s) performance.

With most, if not every, precinct in the country reporting lower turnout in off-year elections, the data for Wisconsin is no exception. Every off-year election since 1948 shows the same pattern.

A couple of interesting comparasion notes are the following:

  • The voter turnout in Wisconsin for the 2004 presidential election of Kerry vs. Bush was higher than 2008 - 72.9 percent - with the Democrats winning by only 11,384 votes

  • Turnout for the 2006 mid-term election in Wisconsin was 50.9 percent

  • In the 2000 Presidential election of Gore vs. Bush the turnout was 67.0 percent with the Democrats winning by 5,708 votes

  • Turnout for the 2002 mid-term election in Wisconsin was 44.0 percent

Do the elections in-between the big ones suffer not only from voter remorse but also voter burnout? Some observers think voters today are busy trying to survive and don’t want to be bothered. Others may decide that Americans are just plain stupid and get what they deserve. Another approach would advance the thought that the long overbearing Presidential elections every four years wear us out and we just don’t have the energy to get excited enough about off-year elections to actually vote. Some on the left are pleased that Walker is in because it makes it a very obvious battle.

Walker made it clear to voters who he was and what he would do about the Wisconsin budget and surprised many with his plan to weaken unions; now there are new battles to fight.

The struggle continues….

Below are links to the data used to produce this commentary.

The Wisconsin Government Accountability Board (GAB)

gab.wi.gov/elections-voting/statistics

WI Voter Turnout History 1948 to Present:

blackcommentator.com/416/416_cover_2_lh_wi_voter_turnout_history.pdf

WI 2010 General Election Results:

blackcommentator.com/416/416_cover_2_lh_wi_2010_results.pdf

WI 2008 General Election Results:

blackcommentator.com/416/416_cover_2_lh_wi_2008_general.pdf

WI 2004 General Election:

blackcommentator.com/416/416_cover_2_lh_wi_2004_general.pdf

WI 2000 General Election:

blackcommentator.com/416/416_cover_2_lh_wi_2000_general.pdf

BlackCommentator.com Publisher and Chief Technical Officer Peter Gamble, is the recipient of a national Sigma Delta Chi award for public service in journalism and numerous other honors for excellence in reporting and investigative reporting. The “beats” he covered as a broadcast journalist ranged from activism in the streets to the State Department and White House. The lure of a personal computer on his desk inspired a career change in 1985 and an immersion into what he saw as the future of communications. The acquisition of computer programming skills made it possible for Peter to achieve an important level of self-reliance in the technology of the 21st century and to develop BlackCommentator.com. Click here to contact Peter.

 

 
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Mar 3, 2011 - Issue 416
is published every Thursday
Est. April 5, 2002
Executive Editor:
David A. Love, JD
Managing Editor:
Nancy Littlefield, MBA
Publisher:
Peter Gamble
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