SPLINTERS ON 2020 ELECTION ISSUES

• It has been nearly two months since Trump’s black U.S. Surgeon General, Jerome Adams, said he would release a report that would address the disproportionate deaths of African Americans from COVID-19, and no report has been released.

• The political pundit and analyst, Nate Silver, has released a report stating that U.S. Sens. Mitch McConnell (R), Lindsey Graham (R), and Susan Collins (R) are in danger of losing their 2020 reelection races likely causing the Senate to flip to Democratic control. This prediction may lull Democrats to sleep.

• Biden’s delay in naming a VP running mate is resulting in a shorter timeline for her to elevate Democratic enthusiasm and turnout.

Many believe Trump is committing political hari-kari (ritual suicide) via his racist rants, militaristic threats, and inability and/or refusal to console the nation during this era of pandemic and racial crises. Biden is riding a wave of positive polls and TV coverage, which is leading him and his advisors to be confident that he is on the cusp of victory. He is not!

Democrats must not forget that they traveled this same political road in 2016. No matter the obscene and authoritarian deeds of our President, there is a method to his madness. Trump’s feeding his base with these vile and deceitful acts is having the effect he desires. He is widening the enthusiasm gap between his and Biden’s supporters.

In a close election, Trump could generate a turnout in key battleground states to best Biden in the final electoral vote count. Forget about the total vote count because in our current presidential election system, it does not matter. Trump is systematically ratcheting up excitement among the most rabid elements of his base with his ongoing obnoxious behavior.

But even more important is his outreach to “on the fence” moderate Republicans, Independents, and conservative Democrats who are fearful of the browning of America. They are horrified by what they imagine to be the impending future of an Asian, Latinx, Native, and African American nation. With his explicit attacks on these groups, he is gaining their validation.

The phrases, “I am the law and order President,” violent thugs,” dominate the streets (buttressed by pictures of majority and minority millennials),” “I will call in the military to protect you and your property from them,” "when the looting starts, the shooting starts," are all designed to stoke working- and middle-class white anxieties, and they are succeeding! There is a silent move toward Trump that will not show up in the polls; it is likely to show up at the ballot box on November 3^rd.

His Monday walk-by photo-op in front of Washington, D.C.’s church of Presidents, St. John’s Episcopal, holding a bible up for the Evangelicals to see, and surrounded by his white male supplicants that he placed in power as Attorney General, Secretary of Defense, National Security Advisor, and his Chief of Staff and female Press secretary as tokens was a hit with his followers. However, D.C.’s top Episcopalian leader condemned him.

Trump’s Tuesday photo-op follow-up with First Lady Melania showed him taking his anti-protester, "law and order" message across town to the Catholic shrine of Saint John Paul II. White power was on full display on both occasions. That visit also drew swift denunciation from the top Catholic Church official.

To reinforce the belief that God is on the side of Evangelicals and other diehard Christians, Trump’s held up the bible, which he has probably never read, in front of St. John’s church. As was the case in 2016, Trump is reaching deep into his bag of political dirty tricks to facilitate his victory in November. He is also getting this message out on his digital platforms.

In the meantime, Biden is being buoyed by his well-received speeches on the coronavirus, the George Floyd murder, and Trump’s terrible behavior. After each verbal foray, he and his staff believe that he is breaking through to his base and other voters who find Trump’s conduct offensive. Yet the enthusiasm for Biden’s candidacy remains approximately 20 points behind that for Trump.

The view that Trump is committing political suicide with these antics may be wildly exaggerated, as was his imminent defeat in 2016 until it wasn’t.

It is time for Biden to make some moves. As we encouraged him earlier, he needs to select his VP immediately, and she needs to be an African American woman who has powerful connections to the African American and female base of the Democratic Party and progressives and millennials of color. In addition, that individual needs to be a compelling speaker and on-the ground organizer.

Stacey Abrams is the only African American female under consideration who possesses all the aforementioned political characteristics. It is almost too late for Biden to get his digital platforms up and running to reach out to these clusters of Democratic voters, since he did not ask Michael Bloomberg for use of his Hawkfish digital operation.

The plan was for the Biden campaign to use Hawkfish's state-of-the-art technology and data analytics “… to take on Trump and his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, a social media savant credited with helping Trump achieve his surprise victory in the 2020 election.” Without this political shot in the arm, Biden is floundering in his ability to close the deal.

Therefore, it is urgent that Biden come up with fresh approaches to invigorate Democrats’ fervor to come out and vote in large numbers. Attending George Floyd’s funeral is a good step but not sufficient to turn the electoral tide in his favor. The Biden campaign needs help and lots of it.

It has to first recognize that its current status was not the result of anything it did during the Democratic primary. The campaign was the beneficiary of Biden having been Obama’s sidekick and Congressman Jim Clyburn’s timely South Carolina endorsement. After that, Biden rode a Democratic wave of being the most acceptable of a sorry Democratic lot.

Powered by black women, he surged to the top of the herd. But now Biden must motivate the Democratic base to turn out in huge numbers during a COVID-19 pandemic in which it will have to overcome old and evolving voter suppression strategies in all the battleground states.

His campaign needs a comprehensive plan. Stacey Abrams’ selection to run beside him will be a major step in that direction. Former First Lady Michelle and President Barack Obama on the campaign trail may help to turn the tide.

To be competitive, Biden also needs to raise and flood the streets in swing states with get-out-the-vote (GOTV) funding and distribute that aid to “real grassroots leaders” rather than to the traditional Democratic bottom feeders that have long sucked up this money with little to show for it. The Biden campaign should take note that Obama ran his own GOTV outreach with outstanding success. If the campaign cannot accomplish these tasks, Biden will lose.