The
best
way of preventing authoritarian
leaders from overthrowing
democracies is to make sure that
they never get into power in the
first place. That’s what the French
did last year when parties on the
left united and then made a second-round
pact with the
centrists to prevent Marine Le Pen
and her far-right National Rally
from winning a parliamentary
majority. And now the courts have
convicted Le Pen
of corruption and barred her from
running for office.
Americans
have obviously screwed the pooch on that
particular method of preventing autocracy.
Voted out of office, slapped with multiple
suits, convicted of a felony, denounced by
dozens of his former appointees, Donald
Trump nevertheless managed to use these
setbacks as evidence that even a billionaire
ex-president can be an “outsider” who’s
taking on the “establishment” and sticking
up for the “little guy.”
On the eve
of the first 100 days of Trump’s second
term, the challenge has now become
infinitely more difficult. America is now
living through that horror movie cliché
where the call is coming from inside the
house. The seemingly indestructible culprit
has returned for a more horrifying sequel to
destroy U.S. democracy from within. Worse,
all the failures of his first term are now
helping him craft more successful
disruptions in his second.
With
a
cowboy president shooting from the
hip in all directions, what can
Americans do to prevent Trump from
taking down democracy (not to
mention the economy, the
international system, and the
planet)? Even New
York
Times columnist
David
Brooks, who admits in a staggering
understatement that “he’s not a
movement guy,” has recently
declared that
“it’s
time for a comprehensive national
civic uprising.”
Alas,
America has no history of such uprisings
from which to draw, except perhaps the
American Revolution and that was a long time
ago. With few domestic examples to inspire,
everyone is now searching the globe for
cases of successful resistance to
authoritarianism.
Unfortunately,
most
examples of such uprisings involved years
and years of organizing. It took a decade to
get rid of Slobodan Milosevic in Serbia,
nearly two decades to oust Augusto Pinochet
in Chile, slightly more than two decades to
overthrow Ferdinand Marcos in the
Philippines, and more than a half-century to
depose the Assad’s father-and-son regime in
Syria.
A decade of
Trump? That’s a sobering prospect. A
100-year-old president-for-life presiding
over the dying embers of American society? A
horror story indeed.
But there
are other examples of more compressed
resistance from which Americans committed to
a national civic uprising can take
inspiration. In recent years, autocrats have
been defeated in Brazil, Poland, and South
Korea. What can we learn from the brave
people who stood up to the dragon and saved
their villages?
Dumping
Bolsonaro
Like
the
United States, Brazil is a deeply
divided country, with an even larger
wealth gap. As Oxfam reports,
“Brazil’s six richest men have the
same wealth as the poorest 50
percent of the population; around
100 million people. The country’s
richest 5 percent have the same
income as the remaining 95 percent.”
The
leftist
Workers’ Party successfully
mobilized the have-nots to win a
series of elections in the 2000s.
But in 2018, buoyed in part by
Donald Trump’s win in 2016, an
aggressive, nationalist outsider,
Jair Bolsonaro, capitalized on voter
frustration with corruption and
persistent poverty to become the
country’s president. The leading
reason for voters to back the
sexist, homophobic, religiously
conservative Bolsonaro was anti-incumbent
sentiment, a
profound dissatisfaction with the
political status quo.
Once
in
office, Bolsonaro threatened to pack
the Supreme Court with his
supporters and, when that failed,
to ignore
its
rulings. He
praised the country’s past military
dictatorship and threatened
to
send troops into the
streets to
restore “order.” He ramped up
the disastrous
deforestation of
the Amazon. Like Trump, he failed to
address the COVID pandemic, pushing
Brazil to the top of the list of
countries with the most fatalities (after
the
United States and Russia).
There
were plenty
of
protests against
Bolsonaro.
But his allies in Congress
provided a
legislative shield against
impeachment. Which
meant that the most effective form
of resistance turned out to be
judicial. And that judicial
resistance largely boiled down to
one person, Alexandre de Moraes, a
member of the country’s Supreme
Court. As Jon Lee Anderson explains in The
New
Yorker:
After
Bolsonaro
took office, in 2019, de
Moraes led an ever-expanding
series of investigations into
him and his family. As
Bolsonaro’s supporters formed
“digital militias” that
flooded the internet with
disinformation—claiming that
political opponents were
pedophiles, spreading blatant
lies about their policies,
inventing conspiracies—de
Moraes fought to force them
offline. Granted special
powers by the judiciary, he
suspended accounts belonging
to legislators, business
magnates, and political
commentators for posts that he
described as harmful to
Brazilian democracy.
These
actions went a long way toward constraining
Bolsonaro’s power and reducing his overall
popularity, so that by the time the next
elections rolled around in 2022, the
strongman lost his reelection bid.
U.S.
Supreme Court justices don’t have the same
kind of power as their Brazilian
counterparts. The Court as a whole has an
even more limited ability to constrain the
Trump administration if the latter decides
not to implement the decisions it doesn’t
like. It’s also going to be difficult to
rein in Trump’s digital militias, given Elon
Musk’s control of Twitter and Mark
Zuckerberg’s capitulation to Trump over at
Facebook.
But
one
lesson from the Brazilian case is
the need to launch immediate
investigations into government
corruption and misconduct. This can
be done in the United States by way
of congressional requests for
reports by the Congressional
Research Service, which for instance
deemed the defunding of USAID to
be
unconstitutional, or to
the Government Accountability
Office, which has been tasked
to study
the
impact of the mass firings of
federal workers. Lawmakers can also
hold informal
hearings on
the unconstitutional actions of DOGE
and the executive branch.
Don’t wait
and play a defensive game. Be as bold as the
Brazilians against Bolsonaro and go on the
offensive.
Displacing
Law
and Justice
The
right-wing
populist Law and Justice party (PiS)
took electoral advantage of the
discontent of Polish voters,
particularly in the countryside, who
had not benefited from the country’s
rush to capitalism after 1989.
Poland A did well by the liberal
reforms; Poland B didn’t
and
took revenge at the polls by
voting for PiS.
Like Donald
Trump and his MAGA forces, PiS had a first
taste of power when it governed for two
years in a coalition government and didn’t
accomplish much. When it came roaring back
in 2015, PiS knew exactly what to do. First,
it went after the courts. PiS was determined
to destroy the country’s constitutional
order and remake Polish society according to
conservative, nationalist, and religious
principles.
The
first
target was the constitutional court,
which had blocked PiS initiatives in
that first administration. As
Christian Davies writes:
The
ruling
party’s strategy played out in
three parts: First, to deny
opposition-appointed judges
from taking their place on the
court. Second, to pass laws
designed to paralyze the court
and prevent it from
functioning effectively.
Third, to force through the
appointment of judges loyal to
the ruling party. All this was
done in open defiance of the
law, the constitution, and
multiple rulings issued by the
Tribunal itself.
This attack
on the judiciary, which was also accompanied
by assaults on the media, free speech, and
non-profit organizations, precipitated a
battle with the European Union, which put
pressure on the Polish government to reverse
its judicial “reforms.” But with the courts
now aligned with its agenda, PiS looked as
though it would consolidate its power
indefinitely. In the 2019 elections, it even
expanded its legislative majority in the
lower house of parliament.
Four
years
later, thanks to its
control
of the media and
other
methods of rigging political
outcomes, PiS again came out on top
in the 2023 parliamentary elections
with 35 percent of the vote. But
this time, three opposition parties
were able to unite to sideline PiS
and form a new government. Poland’s
constitutional crisis had come to an
end.
How did the
Polish opposition manage to beat a clearly
still-popular party?
Perhaps the
EU pressuring from the outside might have
helped. But part of the PiS base was
Euroskeptical, so the party could use EU
pressure to rally its nationalist
supporters.
More
influential
was the ability of the Polish
opposition to overcome its
fractiousness and bring together
leftists, liberals, Solidarity true
believers, traditional
conservatives, and interest-group
advocates like environmentalists and
pro-choice feminists. In 2015, after
the PiS government refused to follow
a Constitutional Court verdict,
major street protests broke out and
a journalist called for a new civic
movement patterned after the
communist-era dissident group, the
Committee for the Defense of Workers
(KOR). “We have to remember, the
goal isn’t to overturn the legally
elected authorities of the country,
but rather the defense of
democracy,” the journalist wrote.
Out
of
this ferment came the Committee for
the Defense of Democracy (KOD),
which organized a series of massive
protests around the country. Within
a few months, it had garnered
the
support of 40 percent of
the population. Because it wasn’t a
party, KOD could appeal to a large
segment of the population that had
become disgusted with electoral
politics. It successfully promoted
the message that PiS was no ordinary
party pushing for an ordinary
platform of policies. Rather, PiS
was a threat to the very legacy of
the Solidarity movement that had
liberated the country.
The United
States needs just such a non-partisan
umbrella organization that can appeal to the
largest swath of the anti-Trump community.
Let’s call it the Society Organized to Save
American Democracy (SOSAD). It stands for
mom, baseball, apple pie, the Founding
Fathers, the constitution, fairly
compensated work, equal rights for all: in
short everything that makes America truly
great.
Reversing
a
Coup
To
overcome
a parliament that blocked his
policies, South Korean President
Yoon Suk-yeol declared martial law
on the evening of December 3, 2024.
The president ordered
police to
seal off the parliament and special
forces to enter the building.
But the
coup lasted for only a few hours. Enough
members of parliament managed to get into
the building that night and hold a vote to
lift martial law. Meanwhile, spurred by news
spread rapidly by electronic means, citizens
began to gather in public places to protest
Yoon’s actions.
South
Koreans saved their democracy because of
brave legislators and determined civil
society activists. The country has a long
history of civic engagement, going back to
the democratization movement of the 1970s
and 1980s and efforts to bring down former
President Park Geun-Hye through months of
candlelight vigils.
“The
speed
of this latest democratic defense
suggests that lessons learned during
decades of mobilization have
strengthened South Korea’s
institutional guardrails and
nationwide vigilance against
executive abuse,” writes Darcie
Draudt-Véjares.
In
April, the
country’s constitutional court upheld the
parliament’s
impeachment and officially removed
Yoon from office.
The
lessons
from the South Korean case are
clear. U.S. legislators have to step
up—as Cory Booker did with his 25-hour
filibuster and
Bernie
Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
have been doing with their
recent
rallies.
Meanwhile, civil society must
organize rapid responses, not just
within silos (like the recent
letter from
university
presidents) but across institutions.
One
key
lesson from the South Korean
experience is the role of labor.
After Yoon’s martial law
announcement, the main trade union
confederation immediately
called for
a
general strike until the president
stepped down. The prospect of a
significant hit to the Korean
economy was a wake-up call for many
who hadn’t yet made up their minds
about Yoon.
U.S.
labor
has had a love-hate relationship
with Trump. Many labor leaders
refused to back the candidate even
as support among rank-and-file
members surged.
Several key unions—Teamsters,
UAW—have been enthusiastic
about
Trump’s tariffs.
Any
opposition to Trump must appeal to working
people who feel ignored and undervalued by
politicians and the elite. They are a core
part of Trump’s support, but they are
certainly persuadable. When the costs of
Trump’s actions begin to rise—at the pump,
in the grocery store, through reduced checks
from Medicare and Medicaid—they may well be
ready for a political change.
Why were
Poles, Koreans, and Brazilians able to turn
back authoritarianism where others have
failed? All three have histories of strong
civil society engagement in politics. All
three had credible leaders—Donald Tusk, Lee
Jae-myung, Lula—who could step in as
alternatives.
And all
three countries have had rather short
experiences of democratic rule. In 1981,
South Koreans were living in the shadow of
martial law, which had been declared the
previous year. Poles entered a martial law
period in December of that year. And
Brazilians were living under a military
dictatorship that wouldn’t collapse until
1985.
The defense
of democracy perhaps feels more urgent in
countries where it’s not taken for granted.
So far, America is failing the stress test
that Trump is applying to the country’s
democratic institutions. But if Americans
are willing to learn some lessons from
Brazil, Poland, and Korea, maybe we can
defeat the dragon as well.
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